Predicting the consequences of marketing policy changes: A new data enrichment method with competitive reactions
This article introduces a new data enrichment method that combines revealed data on consumer demand and competitive reactions with stated data on competitive reactions to yet-to-be-enacted, unprecedented marketing policy changes. The authors extend the data enrichment literature to include stated competitive reactions, collected from subject-matter experts through a conjoint experiment. The authors apply their method to investigate hypothetical and unprecedented sales force policy changes of pharmaceutical companies. The results from the data enrichment method have high face validity and lead to various unique insights compared with using revealed data only. The authors find that only a very large sales force decrease initiated by the market leader triggers all competitors to decrease their sales force as well, leading to substantial profit increases for each firm. With respect to sales force allocation, when competitors decrease their sales force, they mainly decrease the reach of detailing across doctors, rather than decreasing the number of details to the most-visited doctors. The proposed data enrichment method provides managers with a powerful tool to, ex ante, predict the consequences of unprecedented marketing policy changes.
Drug Detailing and Doctors’ Prescription Decisions: The Role of Information Content in the Face of Competitive Entry
Eelco Kappe and Stefan Stremersch
We study the effects of information content in 59,814 pharmaceutical sales calls on doctors’ prescription decisions for statins, in the face of entry of competing brands and generics, using a hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag model. We conclude that adding information content to the prescription response model improves the in- and out-of-sample performance of the model. In the first six months following generic entry, it is more effective for incumbent brands to detail on drug contraindications and indications, compared to other periods, to positively differentiate from generics. In the first six months following branded entry, it is less effective for incumbent brands to detail on drug indications and costs, given increased competitive clutter. We also document substantial heterogeneity among doctors in their response to information content. Our model is helpful for analysts to more accurately assess the effectiveness of detailing. Our empirical results are also informative for drug manufacturers as they set or change their messaging policies in response to entry and help firms to tailor their message content at the doctor level.
Gui Liberali, Eitan Muller, Roland T. Rust and Stefan Stremersch
This special issue of the International Journal of Research in Marketing results from the inaugural edition of bi-annual joint symposia of the American Marketing Association (AMA) and the European Marketing Academy (EMAC). The Erasmus School of Economics (Erasmus Center for Marketing and Innovation, ECMI) organized this inaugural symposium on May 27th and 28th, 2014, in the context of its Centennial
celebrations. The future organizers are the Wharton School (for the 2016 edition) and INSEAD (for the 2018 edition). These symposia are meant to address a topic of high relevance to the marketing community, thus changing over future meetings.
For the Erasmus inaugural meeting we chose Innovation and Marketing as a topic for the symposium. Keynote speakers on the practitioner side included among others, Paul Polman (CEO of Unilever), Jean Francois Van Boxmeer (CEO of Heineken), Jacques Van den Broek (CEO of Randstad), and Frans Muller
(CEO of Delhaize). Academically, keynotes were given by Jan Peter Balkenende (Erasmus University and former prime minister of the Netherlands), Eric Bradlow (Wharton), Glen Urban (MIT), Nirmalya Kumar (LBS and Tata), and Jagdish Sheth (Emory).