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Predicting the consequences of marketing policy changes: A new data enrichment method with competitive reactions

Eelco Kappe, Sriram Venkataraman, and Stefan Stremersch

This article introduces a new data enrichment method that combines revealed data on consumer demand and competitive reactions with stated data on competitive reactions to yet-to-be-enacted, unprecedented marketing policy changes. The authors extend the data enrichment literature to include stated competitive reactions, collected from subject-matter experts through a conjoint experiment. The authors apply their method to investigate hypothetical and unprecedented sales force policy changes of pharmaceutical companies. The results from the data enrichment method have high face validity and lead to various unique insights compared with using revealed data only. The authors find that only a very large sales force decrease initiated by the market leader triggers all competitors to decrease their sales force as well, leading to substantial profit increases for each firm. With respect to sales force allocation, when competitors decrease their sales force, they mainly decrease the reach of detailing across doctors, rather than decreasing the number of details to the most-visited doctors. The proposed data enrichment method provides managers with a powerful tool to, ex ante, predict the consequences of unprecedented marketing policy changes.

 

Elio Keko defends his dissertation on “Essays on Innovation Generation in Incumbent Firms”

Elio Keko defended his dissertation in the Senate Hall at Erasmus University Rotterdam on Thursday, 7 September 2017 at 15:30. His supervisor was Prof. Stefan Stremersch and his co-supervisor was Dr Nuno Camacho. Other members of the Doctoral Committee are Prof. Benedict Dellaert (Erasmus School of Economics), Prof. Patrick Van Kenhove (University of Ghent), Prof. Stefan Wuyts (Koç University), Dr Ivan Guitart (Grenoble School of Management) and Dr Yvonne van Everdingen (Rotterdam School of Management).

ERIM funding awarded

ECMI receives ERIM funding to conduct research on factory closure in the automobile industry and on grassroots innovation.

Benedict Dellaert and Bas Donkers receive Netspar theme grant for new project on how to help individuals make complex pension decisions

Recent developments have increased the demands placed on individuals to plan for their own retirement. While traditionally many pension arrangements were organized collectively, now individuals are asked to take a more active and integral perspective on how to provide for a financially sound old age. In response, firms such as pension funds, insurers and financial advisors are looking for effective ways to assist individuals in this complex task.

Professors Benedict Dellaert and Bas Donkers have received a theme grant worth €250,000 from Netspar to support three part-time postdocs and extensive data collection on this topic.  In the projects they will investigate promising choice architectures and online tools to match different pension trajectories more closely to different individuals’ needs. They address two key themes that are particularly relevant in the current pension context in the Netherlands. The first theme focuses on individuals’ mental integration of multiple risk components in choices between retirement plans (e.g., a state pension, an employer-based pension and a privately accrued pension). The second theme addresses individuals’ sequential choice of risk components in comprehensive retirement plans. Retirement planning takes place over the life span (e.g., when changing a job), and to cope with the risks involved, individuals can over time follow different decision strategies.

The research will be conducted in a close cooperation between researchers at the Erasmus School of Economics, the University of Alberta, University of South Carolina, and Netspar partners Achmea, APG, Robeco and Ortec Finance.

Stefan’s book “How Winners Make Choices”

Prof. dr. Stefan Stremersch has published a book titled “How Winners Make Choices”. Low economic growth, strong competition, disruptive change expose companies to difficult dilemmas. Should companies give a discount in order to survive a crisis if that undermines the position of their brands? Should firms let short-term opportunities pass by in favor of your long-term strategy? Should firms focus more on their target markets or grow more aggressively outside their original niche? This book introduces organizations that win and explains how they do so. Numerous examples strengthen their ambitions to win.

Drug Detailing and Doctors’ Prescription Decisions: The Role of Information Content in the Face of Competitive Entry

Eelco Kappe and Stefan Stremersch

We study the effects of information content in 59,814 pharmaceutical sales calls on doctors’ prescription decisions for statins, in the face of entry of competing brands and generics, using a hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag model. We conclude that adding information content to the prescription response model improves the in- and out-of-sample performance of the model. In the first six months following generic entry, it is more effective for incumbent brands to detail on drug contraindications and indications, compared to other periods, to positively differentiate from generics. In the first six months following branded entry, it is less effective for incumbent brands to detail on drug indications and costs, given increased competitive clutter. We also document substantial heterogeneity among doctors in their response to information content. Our model is helpful for analysts to more accurately assess the effectiveness of detailing. Our empirical results are also informative for drug manufacturers as they set or change their messaging policies in response to entry and help firms to tailor their message content at the doctor level.

KPN ECMI collaboration great success

  • KPN ECMI collaboration great success
  • KPN ECMI collaboration great success
  • KPN ECMI collaboration great success
  • KPN ECMI collaboration great success
  • KPN ECMI collaboration great success
  • KPN ECMI collaboration great success
  • KPN ECMI collaboration great success

The marketing department at Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) just finished a joint student-run business project with KPN during the seminar “Developing and Marketing New Products”. Over the business project, students were asked to consult KPN as external advisors on an innovation challenge. The winners of the “ECMI Innovation and Marketing Seminar Champion 2016” trophy have been announced at the final event at KPN’s headquarters in The Hague. Jan Kees de Jager (CFO) nominated the winning solution approach in front of different managers from KPN and a renowned judging panel. Dr. Florian Deutzmann and Prof. Dr. Stefan Stremersch initiated and coordinated the business project. We congratulate the winning team and thank all participating students for their strong efforts!

ECMI cooperates with KPN

ECMI cooperates with KPN and KPN Consulting during the seminar “Developing and Marketing New Product” taught at the Erasmus School of Economics in spring 2016. Over the course of the seminar, students are challenged to develop sustainable business model concepts for a new product based on a predefined technology. The recommendations are presented in front of a board of representatives at KPN’s headquarters in The Hague. Dr. Florian Deutzmann and Prof. Dr. Stefan Stremersch act as ECMI representatives on this project.
ECMI cooperates with KPN and KPN Consulting during the seminar “Developing and Marketing New Product” taught at the Erasmus School of Economics in spring 2016. Over the course of the seminar, students are challenged to develop sustainable business model concepts for a new product based on a predefined technology. The recommendations are presented in front of a board of representatives at KPN’s headquarters in The Hague. Dr. Florian Deutzmann and Prof. Dr. Stefan Stremersch act as ECMI representatives on this project.

ERIM awards research grant

ERIM awards a research grant of 20K to ECMI to conduct research on marketing and innovation in the automotive industry.

Stefan Stremersch wins 2015 ERIM Top Article Award

Professor Stefan Stremersch wins the ERIM Top Article Award 2015 for the article “From Academic Research to Marketing Practice: Exploring the Marketing Science Value Chain”. The ERIM Top Article Award honours the best publication in management research in one of the field’s top journals. The winner of the award is selected by an academic committee consisting of the Scientific Directors of CentER (Tilburg University), METEOR (University of Maastricht) and SOM (University of Groningen). All these research schools are accredited by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW).
Professor Stefan Stremersch wins the ERIM Top Article Award 2015 for the article “From Academic Research to Marketing Practice: Exploring the Marketing Science Value Chain”. The ERIM Top Article Award honours the best publication in management research in one of the field’s top journals. The winner of the award is selected by an academic committee consisting of the Scientific Directors of CentER (Tilburg University), METEOR (University of Maastricht) and SOM (University of Groningen). All these research schools are accredited by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW).

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